10月20日至23日，党的二十届四中全会在京举行，审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》。为此，《北京周报》（BEIJING REVIEW）独家专访清华大学中国新型城镇化研究院院长尹稚教授，权威解读“十五五”时期中国区域发展的战略思路。
来源：《北京周报》（BEIJING REVIEW）2025年第45期
专访整理：北京周报记者 张莎莎
筑牢发展动能的“空间载体”
尹 稚
城市规划领域中的“门槛理论”揭示了一个普遍规律：任何事业的进步并非遵循简单的线性上升路径，而是在经历阶段性爆发式增长后，往往会因环境变迁、技术制约等因素，进入一个调整与平台期。这一阶段通常需要完成几项关键任务：识别重大机遇的转变，突破发展过程中的关键性瓶颈，探索新旧动能之间有效转换的路径，并在新的发展条件下实现可用资源的优化重组。一旦成功跨越这些关键障碍，便有望迎来下一轮更高质量、更高速度的成长。无论是城市、区域还是国家的发展，其轨迹都不是一条斜率恒定的上升直线，而更接近于阶梯式的跃升过程。
中国的现代化进程同样呈现出清晰的阶梯式递进特征。“十五五”时期的发展重点，不在于盲目追求规模与速度，而是要为高质量发展立规则、树标准、探路径、调布局和谋统筹。必须夯实基础、全面发力，克难关、战风险、迎挑战。到2035年，中国现代化进程能否行稳致远，关键取决于这五年所奠定的基础是否牢固、所选择的路径是否科学合理。一旦平稳跨越这一关键阶段，在“十六五”乃至“十七五”期间，中国社会经济有望迎来新一轮的爆发式增长。
一、“四大战略”叠加效应
二十届四中全会为下一阶段区域发展作出了明确部署：
四大战略叠加，协同驱动区域发展。全会强调，要充分发挥区域协调发展战略、区域重大战略、主体功能区战略与新型城镇化战略的叠加效应。过去，这四大战略各有侧重：区域协调注重均衡，重大战略聚焦增长极建设，主体功能区强调分区差异化治理，新型城镇化则着眼于人的现代化与城市的主导作用。四大战略叠加，就是要实现发展动力与空间载体的高效匹配。
要推动从城市到区域的特色化发展，而不是用“一把尺子”量全国。各地区要立足其自然资源禀赋、区位条件和社会经济基础，制定符合实际的发展目标。部分区域适宜推进高速高质量增长，部分地区反而适合减量发展。重点城市化地区是经济主引擎，发展综合性强，也是人口主要聚集地；而生态保育地区，则不应追求工业高速高增加值，而要聚焦生态治理能力的提升。此外，应推动城市化优势地区与潜力地区的对接融合，在综合评估基础上明确区域新定位，寻找特色化发展机遇。
推动经济布局与国土空间体系融合发展。要促进区域经济布局与国土空间体系的匹配优化。经济社会发展规划明确目标与标准，国土空间体系则为发展提供具有适宜区位、合理规模与质量保障的空间载体。“十四五”时期侧重于开发与保护的结构平衡，旨在缓解城镇化高速发展阶段中大规模建设与生态保护间的突出矛盾。当前，我国在国土空间保护与约束体系建设方面已取得显著进展，但在发展支撑能力上仍有提升空间。因此，新阶段重在优化国土空间发展格局，强化其对社会经济发展的保障作用，实现“优势互补、各司其职”的高质量发展路径。
强化区域联动，破解发展不平衡问题。区域协调发展战略进一步强调区域联动，旨在加快解决发展不平衡问题。其重点包括两个方面：一是推动强势区域之间的强强联合，促进资源整合与功能协同，实现“1+1>2”的聚合效应，提升整体发展质量；二是促进发达地区与欠发达地区之间的互补联动，既依靠中央财政转移支付等调控手段，也鼓励市场机制发挥作用，利用两类地区间的资源差、成本差、价位差，推动产业集群和产业链上进一步的分工合作，实现整体效益最大化。
深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化。新型城镇化的核心始终是“以人为本”。城市化进程，无论是量化指标的城市化率，还是城市所承担的社会经济发展功能，说到底还是 “人”的命题。推动现代化的根本目标，始终是人的现代化及全体国民素质的大幅提升。
首先，要解决好市民化的问题。市民化进程的核心，在于超越单纯的职业转换，实现农业转移人口在城市的深度融入。过去以“农民工”为代表的模式，其在文化认同、居住形态、生活模式上仍然处于农村化，是“半市民化”状态。真正的、完整的市民化，需要实现就业转移、生活方式转移和社会意识转移。这不仅涉及就业，也要求建立一个覆盖其自身及家庭的公共服务体系，确保在教育、医疗、社保等领域享有平等权利。
当前，劳动力转移结构正经历深刻转折，大专及以上学历毕业生进城规模已超越农村剩余劳动力的转移数量。在这一新形势下，市民化工作须确保新市民“进得来、留得下、发展好”，并在积累了技能与物质财富后返乡创业、振兴乡村，最终构建一个从“乡到城”再到“城到乡”的良性双向循环体系。
其次，要优化社会财富分配结构，提高劳动收入占比。我国高度重视收入分配公平问题，坚决防止财富两极分化与底层民粹化风险。在推进城镇化的过程中，应抑制经济过度金融化倾向，确保金融工具服务于实体经济、科技创新与民生改善，而非成为资本逐利的通道。
二、为高质量发展提供空间支撑
传统社会的一个显著特征是，人、土地与特定地域之间存在紧密的依附关系；而现代社会则呈现出高度的流动性，新的就业机会与发展空间，根本上来源于各类生产要素的流通与重组。在这一方面，我国已取得显著进展：以人流、物流、信息流、资本流为代表的广义互联互通网络不断强化，硬件设施与软件环境同步提升，社会整体流动性显著增强。与此同时，以商品流通为核心的全国统一大市场也已基本具备成熟条件。
在此背景下，推动生产力要素的更高水平自由流动成为关键。未来的核心任务之一，是破除劳动者自由流动的壁垒。当前，劳动者在省域范围内的流动已基本实现无障碍，长三角等发达地区已开始探索劳动力跨省域流动。长远目标是实现全国范围内的人口自由流动，最理想的状态是身份证能够只作为公民身份标识，逐步与流动过程中享受的社会福利基本脱钩。在土地要素方面，土地指标是否能够在指标稀缺地区和富裕地区流动也非常关键。目前，指标调配还多局限于市域或省域范围内。对于数据等新质生产要素，则需着力破解“数字孤岛”，在“十五五”期间通过建立规则与标准，实现其跨部门、跨领域的合规高效流动。
在“十五五”阶段，发展水平最高的地区已进入构建世界级城市群为主要任务的发展阶段。大部分地区仍需以培育规模适度的现代化都市圈为首要任务。近年来，除长三角、粤港澳、京津冀等传统优势区域外，越来越多的城市群和都市圈开始见诸于国内和国际舞台，其中包括成渝双城经济圈、以武汉、长沙、南昌为核心的长江中游城市群、在“一带一路”发展中作用日益突出的以乌鲁木齐为中心的天山北坡城市群、面向东盟和东南亚地区发展的北部湾城市群，以及以昆明为核心的滇中城市群。随着国家全球互联互通战略的深入推进，以及中国在全球经济体系中扮演更加重要的角色，更多战略枢纽地区的地位将得到进一步巩固和提升。
当前，优化战略腹地建设已成为国家发展的重要议题，新一轮战略腹地建设秉持“边斗争、边备战、边建设”的指导思想，旨在应对日益复杂的国际形势与不确定性挑战。与上世纪六七十年代的“三线建设”不同，当前战略腹地建设不仅承担国家重大生产力与能源资源战略储备功能，更顺应了经济格局市场化调整的内在需求。随着沿海地区物业成本与生活成本的抬升，产业链各环节依据效益原则进行空间重构。部分产业环节从高成本地区向战略腹地转移。事实上，许多在战略腹地形成的新兴产业和新产业链条上的关键制造节点，正是市场主体自主选择的结果。不少沿海企业积极在腹地设立第二、第三制造基地，这些基地凭借租金成本优势、劳动力资源丰富等条件，往往形成比沿海原有基地更大规模、更高水平的产能集聚。本轮战略枢纽与战略腹地建设，呈现出“有效市场”与“有为政府”相互促进的特征。
近年来，“要素随人走、投资随人走、资源随人走”已成为资源配置的重要导向，相关政策开始注重对人口流入与流出地区实施差异化的投资与要素投放。在全国城市化进程中，具体城市出现人口增减是正常现象。对于承担生态保育功能的地区而言，其首要任务是保护生态环境，而非盲目追求人口增长。这些地区往往已面临人口超载压力，因此，通过提升教育水平，促使培养出的劳动力向更适合发展现代产业的城市化地区集中，实际上有利于区域协调发展。
人口有序流动可通过两种形式改善原居地居民生活水平：一是外出务工人员通过汇款反哺家乡，二是部分家庭实现整体迁移。这为生态敏感地区带来人口减负，留守居民人均占有的生态资源量相应提升。通过有效管护与保育，这些生态资源将转化为高价值的生态资产，形成新发展优势。随着“双碳”目标的推进，碳交易市场活力将不断增强。在严格控制碳排放的背景下，一些必要的高碳行业可通过购买排放配额持续运营，这为人口减负地区创造了新的发展机遇。
农业地区同样遵循相似逻辑。在人均耕地面积有限的背景下，推动农业人口向承载能力更强、生活与发展条件更优的地区集聚，有助于腾退更多空间，以更合理的资源负荷推进生态修复与耕地保护。通过提升人均耕作面积与经营规模，农业才能真正实现增收与可持续发展。因此，“要素随人走、投资随人走、资源随人走”的配置机制，将显著提升经济发展的效率与区域专业化、特色化水平。
前一阶段的国土空间规划工作更多在于强调底线约束与生态保护，以快速缓解资源环境领域的突出矛盾。然而，仅仅守住底线并不足以支撑高质量发展的全面要求。国土空间规划不仅承担着保护自然资源与生态底线的责任，同样肩负着为经济社会发展提供有效空间支撑和环境保障的重要使命。正因如此，“十五五”时期将着力推动保护与发展的深度融合，增强发展动能与资源环境承载能力之间的匹配度，提升国土空间的综合支撑能力。同时必须明确的是，发展始终是中国面对任何国际环境时的核心主题。
以下为英文报道原文：
The geography of growth
China aims to create a more effective alignment between the forces that drive growth and the spaces that carry it
By Yin Zhi
In urban planning, there is a well-known "threshold theory," which suggests that development, whether of a city, a region or an entire nation, does not follow a smooth and linear path upward; instead, progress advances in stages.
After a period of rapid growth, with changes in development environment and technological bottlenecks, there often comes a phase of adjustment and stabilization, during which several tasks must be undertaken: identifying shifts in major opportunities, overcoming key development obstacles, achieving an effective transition between old and new growth drivers, and reorganizing available resources in response to changing circumstances. Once these challenges are resolved, a new phase of accelerated development begins.
China's modernization follows this law. The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period will not be about racing for speed or scale. Rather, it will be about setting the rules, establishing the standards, exploring pathways, optimizing planning and ensuring coordinated progress for high-quality development. It will be a time for China to strengthen foundations and confront challenges head-on.
From coordination to integration
Over the years, China has introduced four strategies for guiding regional development. Each once served a distinct purpose—the Coordinated Regional Development Strategy emphasized balance, the Major Regional Strategies prioritized the creation of growth poles, the Functional Zoning Strategy focused on differentiated governance, and the New Urbanization Strategy centered on people's modernization and the leading role of cities in the process.
The emphasis on "giving full play to the synergies between the four strategies" in the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development aims to create a more effective alignment between the forces that drive growth and the spaces that carry it. The document, adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, held in Beijing on October 20-23, establish the guiding principles and objectives for China's overall advancement over the next five years.
China is placing even greater emphasis on tailored development based on each region's distinctive natural, economic and social resource conditions. Another focus is the integration of regional economic layout and the territorial space system. The former sets goals and standards for development while the latter provides the physical and environmental foundation for achieving them (such as zoning and land use planning).
During the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, the emphasis of spatial planning has been on balancing development and conservation, as China is still in a phase of rapid urbanization and faces strong tensions between large-scale construction and ecological preservation. In contrast to our major progress in environmental protection and regulatory frameworks, the mechanisms that sustain development have not yet played their full role. Thus, the new priority is to optimize the spatial layout for development.
A critical component of China's regional coordination strategy in the new stage is boosting interconnected development between regions. This has two main dimensions: Developed regions should cooperate to achieve a "one plus one is greater than two" effect, creating greater efficiency, innovation and competitiveness through synergy; cooperation between developed and less developed regions must be deepened. This involves not only financial transfer payments but also market-driven mechanisms that leverage their differences in prices, resources and costs to promote industrial clustering and value-chain collaboration. The goal is to maximize overall economic efficiency across regions. (The financial transfer payment refers to the funds allocated by higher-level governments to lower-level governments free of charge. It is an important policy tool mainly used to solve the problem of regional financial imbalance and promote the equalization of basic public services between regions—Ed.)
The concept of "people-centered" new urbanization is underlined in the document of recommendations. When discussing urbanization, whether in terms of the urbanization rate or the leading role cities play in driving social and economic development, it ultimately comes down to people.
In this regard, one of the tasks is to ensure people who move to cities from rural areas obtain household registration and access basic public services in their place of permanent residence.
A truly people-centered urbanization also touches upon how social wealth created by urbanization is distributed, specifically, increasing the labor income share. The ultimate goal is to raise overall national income, not to concentrate wealth among a few.
Strategic mobility
Modern society is defined by mobility. The more primitive a society, the more tightly people and land are bound together. However, new opportunities stem from the free flow of factors of production, namely, labor, capital, goods and information. China has made remarkable progress in this regard. From physical infrastructure to digital systems, connectivity has advanced greatly over the years. A unified national market centered on the free flow of goods is now largely in place.
The next step is to enable the freer movement of other factors of production, beginning with labor. Within provinces, mobility is already largely unhindered. In more advanced regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, policymakers are exploring how to achieve seamless inter-provincial movement. The ultimate goal is nationwide mobility.
Land use and resource allocation will follow a similar trajectory. For instance, can urban construction land quotas be transferred freely between resource-scarce and resource-abundant areas? Today, such adjustments are still largely limited within municipal or provincial boundaries. The same question extends to data resources. Breaking down "data silos" and enabling cross-sector data flow will also be key issues during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
During this period, China's most advanced regions are already moving into a new phase: developing world-class city clusters. For most other regions, the focus will be on cultivating smaller modern metropolitan circles with distinctive strengths. As China advances its strategy of global connectivity, a greater number of strategic hubs will be further strengthened.
Another priority is strengthening strategic hinterland. As property and living costs rise in eastern coastal regions, parts of the industrial chain are relocating inland, where production and living costs are lower. Many firms are building second or even third manufacturing bases in inland regions. These regions will play a crucial role in China's next phase of economic restructuring.
In recent years, China has also emphasized that factors of production, investment and resources should flow in line with the trends of population movement. This marks a shift toward more differentiated and adaptive policymaking, ensuring that both growing urban centers and less-populated areas receive the targeted support to achieve balanced and efficient development.
Urban population increases and decreases are part of a dynamic system. For ecological preservation areas, maintaining smaller populations and reducing human pressure can itself generate new value.
As China advances toward its goals of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, carbon markets will become a major new growth driver. Regions with lighter industrial footprints, including those with declining populations, will gain fresh opportunities by converting ecological resources into economic assets through conservation and carbon trading.
In earlier years, China's spatial planning focused mainly on preserving ecology and resources. The 15th Five-Year Plan shifts emphasis toward strengthening the foundation for development, ensuring that security and growth advance together. Even amid global uncertainty, development remains China's core priority.
