10月23日，二十届四中全会公报正式发布，“十五五”规划蓝图重磅出炉，释放出重要政策信号。未来五年，中国发展的关键词有哪些？“十五五”期间哪些领域将迎来新机遇？中国的发展蓝图又将如何为全球发展注入更多确定性？《北京周报》(BEIJING REVIEW) 独家专访清华大学国情研究院副院长、清华大学中国新型城镇化研究院特聘专家鄢一龙，深入解读四中全会公报内容，共同展望“十五五”发展前景。
来源：《北京周报》(BEIJING REVIEW) 2025年第45期
作者：北京周报记者 张莎莎
01 五年规划提供了一份难得的“中国确定性”
作为国家治理的重要机制，五年规划使得中国能够长远地谋划、接续地实现目标，是创造中国奇迹的重要手段。尽管这一机制最早并非中国原创，但能长期坚持并取得重大发展成就举世罕见，是“中国模式”的重要体现。
西方主流经济学认为，国家层面做规划是不可行的，规划多应在城市或企业层面进行。但现在看来，他们的认识有很大局限性。中国创造了一种新型的规划，这是一种与市场经济有机结合的规划，既能充分发挥市场“无形之手”的作用，又能积极运用规划“有形之手”的作用。“两只手”形成合力，能够产生巨大的效能。
许多西方观察者不理解为什么中国能够突然取得今日的发展成就。然而这样的成就并非一蹴而就，而是一个又一个五年规划接续奋斗与积累的成果。这也与中国长期规划的优势密切相关。中国战略方向始终保持稳定，即使到2050年，中国都会坚定现代化目标，一步一个脚印地接续努力。在充满高度不确定性的全球环境中，五年规划提供了一份难得的“中国确定性”。
从国际环境看，“十五五”时期恰逢大国博弈的战略相持期与世界格局的动荡期。面对这一形势，提升规划韧性至关重要。“十四五”的实践已充分证明，尽管遭遇世纪疫情冲击与外部环境剧变，中国经济依然高质量完成了目标和任务。
02 12项重大部署出炉，这些看点值得关注
全会提出12项重点部署，其中“建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基”被置于首位。这正是标志着中国要走一条新型的世界大国的道路。如今我们已深刻认识到，制造业与实体经济才是中国经济发展的基础。目前，中国制造业增加值占全球比重约30%。
要推动制造业与服务业融合发展。服务业分为生产性服务业和生活性服务业。生产性服务业就是服务实体经济的，能够服务制造业和农业现代化。因此，要推动制造业与服务业的融合化发展。我们现在拥有强大的制造能力，也要让它服务业化，例如我们不仅要销售设备，更要拓展服务与数字化解决方案。
要推进制造业与数字经济融合发展。中国数字经济之所以快速发展，一个基础原因在于拥有完整、链条齐全的实体经济体系。这使得人工智能、大模型等技术得以迅速应用于汽车、具身智能等工业应用场景。这是我们发展数字经济的依托，也是我们推进创新的基础。完整的产业链是中国创新的显著优势：任何创意都能快速实现制造、市场迭代，并反向牵引技术升级，形成“创新—制造—再创新”的良性循环。
中国已成为全球大多数国家的主要贸易伙伴。而成为全球最大的贸易国的基础仍然是实体经济，因为贸易发展离不开强大的生产制造能力，提供为全人类所需的产品。所以全会政策信号很明确，要以实体经济为基础，以先进制造业为骨干去建立一个现代产业体系。这个过程中并非不发展其他产业，而是要以此为中心构建一个现代产业体系。
在实体经济方面，国家还部署了传统产业、新兴产业、未来产业，这是在时间上阶梯递进的三招棋。通过新技术来改造提升传统产业，保持传统产业优势；对现在已经形成的新的产业集群，要形成新的优势；未来产业提早布局，虽然未来五年不一定能有具体收获，例如具身智能、可控核聚变、量子计算等，但十年之后会证明之前的部署是正确的。这是实体经济下非常科学和高明的一个规划。
除此之外，很多部署也值得重点关注。与“十四五”相比，本次公报在一些表述上有所不同。“十四五”时期，产业政策的重点更多放在“补短板”、解决“卡脖子”问题上。而到了“十五五”时期，站在新的历史方位，更加强调以创新驱动发展，提升产业盈利能力，构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。表明中国在“十四五”的基础上，已迈上新的台阶。但中国实现现代化目标的决心是坚定不移的，尽管国际环境复杂多变，“中国号”巨轮仍将沿着既定的方向稳步前进。
此外，全会指出到2035年，中国人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国家水平，这就意味着中国经济仍将保持中高速发展。“十五五”是中国基本实现现代化目标承前启后的关键五年。只要“十五五”步伐稳健，中国2035年基本实现现代化的目标将有充分把握。
创新也是一大亮点。在科技层面，相关表述从“科技自立自强”升级为“高水平科技自立自强”。高水平科技自立自强，关键在于把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革的战略机遇，抢占未来发展的制高点，这标志着科技创新已成为驱动“十五五”发展的主要动力。为此，公报特别强调要筑牢教育、科技、人才三大支柱，并推动科技创新与实体经济深度融合。
另一个值得高度关注的亮点是“人”被置于非常重要的位置。公报针对推动人的全面发展、全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐，促进人口高质量发展，持续提升人民生活品质，人民生活更加幸福美好等作出了一系列民生部署。“人民至上”的理念深植于中国的文化传统，正如古语所言，“天听自我民听”，“圣人无常心，以百姓心为心”。这意味着中国共产党始终将人民高举于顶，人民的小事就是国家的大事，这在“十五五”期间将会得到更加突出的体现。
03 与世界共同成长、共享机遇
与此同时，中国的持续开放将为国际社会带来巨大的市场机遇。中国正在推进全国统一大市场建设，这既是为了扩大内需，也意味着中国即将成为全球规模最大的单一市场之一。我们举办进口博览会、持续推进高水平对外开放，都会为全球产品进入中国创造更多机会。
中国市场正成为全球经济的“训练场”。在这里，企业能够接触到最前沿的产业变革和商业模式创新。失去中国市场，不仅意味着失去一个巨大市场，更可能错失参与全球最前沿产业发展的机会。许多欧洲国家已经意识到，在中国市场锤炼出来的商业模式和产品，具备全球竞争力。中国市场具有两个突出特点：首先是竞争强度高，同一领域往往有多条技术路线、多家企业同台竞技；其次是迭代速度快。只有亲身参与，才能真正把握产业发展的脉搏。比如不少欧洲汽车厂商在疫情期间与中国市场交流减少，疫情后重新来到中国时惊讶地发现，中国电动车产业已经迈上了全新台阶。
中国产业发展也为全球产业链、供应链提供有力支撑。在资源优化配置的内在要求下，全球范围内逐步形成了区域分工体系。中国是全球唯一兼具完整产业体系、强大制造能力、高性价比优势的国家。世界各国通过与中国的合作，能够显著提升自身生产效率。在全球产业链优化与重组构成中，中国始终是不可或缺的稳定环节。当前，全球绿色转型面临的关键挑战之一是绿色产能的不足——既缺乏足够的绿色能源，也欠缺相应的绿色制造能力。而中国强大的绿色生产制造能力，有效弥补了全球绿色产能的缺口，为全球智能化、绿色化进程作出了重要贡献。
中国创新创造正在为世界注入新动力。在东南亚、中东、非洲和拉美，来自中国的创新技术、产品和发展模式正加速当地的现代化进程。高质量共建“一带一路”，正在有效赋能全球南方国家，增强其内生发展能力。
中国对外投资持续扩大也将持续释放发展潜能。商务部部长王文涛介绍，“十五五”时期将部署拓展双向投资合作空间，既看国内生产总值也看国民总收入，既重视“中国经济”也重视“中国人经济”。在对外投资发展过程中，中国企业的国际竞争力不断提升，为全球产供链的稳定畅通作出了积极贡献。这些海外资产的收益将直接贡献于国民总收入增长。
总体来看，中国向世界传递了一个明确信号：我们走的是一条新型大国之路。中国强大起来后，不会输出战乱与冲突，而是输出机遇。中国在保持自身稳定发展的同时，始终致力于与世界共同成长、共享机遇。
以下为英文报道原文：
The Power of Planning
Landmark meeting sends major policy signals for the next five years
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), convened in Beijing from October 20 to 23, shed light on China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), a development roadmap over the next five years.
As a crucial pillar of national governance, China's Five-Year Plans have allowed the country to think long term, act strategically, and sustain progress across decades. This mechanism has been a key driver behind what many call the "Chinese miracle." While this idea of strategic planning was not originally conceived in China, the country's persistence in making the plans and remarkable success in implementing them are unparalleled. This enduring success is a defining feature of what's often called the "China model."
Mainstream Western economics has long argued that national-level planning is impractical, advocating instead for planning at the city or enterprise level. However, this perspective appears increasingly narrow when viewed through the lens of China's experience.
Over the decades, China has developed a new form of planning that combines the market-driven principles of a capitalist economy with the guiding hand of government policy. This approach, in which the government's "visible hand" complements the market's "invisible hand," creates a synergy that has driven immense progress.
Many Western observers have wondered how China has achieved remarkable development so quickly. The truth is, these accomplishments did not happen overnight. They are the cumulative result of one Five-Year Plan after another, each building upon the last in a continuous process of accumulation. This continuity is a key advantage of China's long-term planning approach. China's strategic direction has remained remarkably stable. The Five-Year Plans provide a rare form of certainty in China, in a world of increasing uncertainty.
Dynamic planning
The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan period will coincide with a time of strategic standoff between major global powers and profound instability in the world order. In this context, dynamic planning will be more important than ever. The experience of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) has proven that even under the unprecedented shock of a global pandemic and other volatile external conditions, China can still manage to meet its high-quality development targets.
The key to maintaining resilience lies, first and foremost, in combining long-term planning with short-term flexibility. The ability to make strategic decisions at the right moment and dynamically adjusting the planning and macroeconomic control is one of the inherent strengths of China's planning mechanism.
The Five-Year Plans' midterm evaluation mechanism should be fully utilized to make necessary adjustment in response to changing circumstances. In the past, this adjustment mechanism was rarely activated. But in today's era of high uncertainty, it has become clear that no plan can foresee all changes, such as the sudden onset of a global pandemic or the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts. Making the national planning more dynamic is therefore essential to mitigating future risks.
From an economic standpoint, China's growth has already been extraordinary. The People's Republic of China has sustained rapid growth for more than 70 years. Many believe this surge began with reform and opening up launched some four decades ago, yet even before that period, China's average annual GDP growth exceeded 6 percent. Having maintained high-speed growth for over seven decades, the nation is entering the 15th Five-Year Plan period, during which it aims to sustain medium growth for at least another decade.
How can this be achieved? The answer lies in the institutional strengths of socialism. Historically, when other nations reached a similar stage of development, many turned outward through expansion, wars or shifting industries abroad, leading to the hollowing-out of domestic sectors. China, however, is pursuing a different path, one that leverages the advantages of its socialist system and promoting interplay between an efficient market and a well-functioning government.
Take domestic demand as an example. Market forces alone are insufficient. China's rapid rise within the electric vehicle industry would not have been possible without the government's firm commitment to climate policy and top-level strategic design. Addressing climate change is not just an environmental necessity, but also a major driver of economic growth.
Expanding domestic demand is a systemic endeavor that involves employment, income distribution and social welfare. One of the root causes of insufficient domestic demand lies in the fact that many low- and middle-income households have the desire to consume but lack the purchasing power. Promoting common prosperity, at its core, is about boosting their consumption capacity. Likewise, projects such as urban renewal and the redevelopment of old residential areas are not only tangible measures toward common prosperity but also powerful engines for domestic demand. Behind all these efforts stands the strategic strength of the state.
New priorities
The recent plenary session laid out 12 major priorities for China's next stage of development. At the top of the list is "building a modernized industrial system and reinforcing the foundations of the real economy." This signals China's resolve to chart a new course. China has realized more clearly than ever that the real economy is the cornerstone of its development. The message is clear: The modern industrial system must be built on the foundation of the real economy, with advanced manufacturing as its core. Its manufacturing value added now accounts for roughly 30 percent of the global total.
The plenary session noted that it is essential to promote the integration of manufacturing and services. China already has powerful manufacturing capabilities, but it is equally important to promote the fusion of manufacturing and services. Rather than merely selling equipment, we must expand into providing integrated services.
Equally vital is the integration of manufacturing and the digital economy. The rapid rise of China's digital economy rests on a solid foundation—a complete and fully integrated real economy system. This allows technologies like AI to be swiftly deployed in real-world scenarios, from smart vehicles to embodied intelligence. This serves as the foundation for China's digital economy and the bedrock of its innovation drive. A full industrial chain gives China a unique edge in innovation, so ideas can be quickly translated into prototypes, manufactured, tested and improved, creating a virtuous cycle of "innovation-manufacturing-reinnovation."
China is now the leading trading partner for most countries around the world, and the cornerstone of this is its real economy. Trade cannot flourish without strong manufacturing capacity to produce what the world needs.
Traditional sectors will be upgraded through new technologies to preserve their strengths; emerging industries will be scaled up to form new competitive advantages; and future industries, such as embodied intelligence, controlled nuclear fusion and quantum computing, will be strategically encouraged. Even if these frontier technologies yield no immediate payoff in the next five years, their early groundwork will prove invaluable in the decade ahead. This is long-range, evidence-based planning.
Beyond that, many of the new policy arrangements also deserve close attention. Compared with the previous plan, the 15th Five-Year-Plan will put more emphasis on innovation-driven growth, industrial profitability and the construction of a modern industrial system anchored in advanced manufacturing. This shows that China has reached a new stage of development based on the foundation laid during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Its determination to achieve modernization remains unwavering. Despite an increasingly complex and uncertain international environment, China will continue to move steadily forward along its chosen course.
The plenary session also set a long-term goal: By 2035, China's per-capita GDP will be on a par with that of a mid-level developed country. This suggests that China's economy will maintain steady and medium-to-high-speed growth. As long as China maintains steady growth during the next five years, the 2035 modernization target will be well within reach.
Innovation is another highlight. The plenary session stressed a "high-level self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology," an upgrade from the previous wording of "self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology." This shift reflects a deeper ambition: to seize the strategic opportunities of a new round of technological and industrial transformation and to secure future development. This demonstrates the central role of technological innovation in driving the development in the next five years. To achieve this, the plenary session underscored the need to reinforce education, science and technology, and human resources, to ensure that innovation and the real economy advance together in an integrated way.
Another noteworthy focus is the emphasis on the people. The plenary session devoted extensive attention to improving people's wellbeing—making solid headway promoting well-rounded personal development and common prosperity for all, promoting high-quality population development and further improving people's living standards. The principle of "people first" runs deep in Chinese tradition. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, this centrality will be more pronounced than ever.
Opportunities for all
China's continued opening up presents vast market opportunities to the world. Initiatives such as the China International Import Expo are creating more pathways for global products to enter China.
In the Chinese market, businesses are exposed to the world's most dynamic industrial transformations and cutting-edge business innovations. Losing access to the Chinese market means more than losing a massive consumer base, for it also means missing out on the chance to participate in the frontier of global industrial evolution. Many European businesses have come to realize that their models and products refined in China are globally competitive.
Two features make the Chinese market unique: the intensity of competition and the speed of evolution. In almost every field, multiple technologies and companies compete side by side, pushing innovation forward. Only by participating in the market directly can one truly grasp the pulse of industrial change. For example, several European automakers, after limited engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic, were astonished to find that China's electric vehicle industry had leapt to an entirely new level upon their return.
China's industrial development also provides critical support for global industrial and supply chains. As the world moves toward a more optimized allocation of resources, a global system of regional specialization is gradually emerging. China remains the country with a complete industrial system, strong manufacturing capacity, and a competitive cost-performance advantage. Through cooperation with China, countries around the world can significantly improve their production efficiency. In the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains, China stands as a stabilizing anchor.
One of the major challenges facing the global green transition is a shortage of green capacity, both in terms of insufficient renewable energy and limited green manufacturing capability. China's strong green manufacturing base fills this gap, making a vital contribution to the world's shift toward smarter and more sustainable development.
Chinese innovation is injecting fresh momentum into global growth. Across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, Chinese technologies, products, and development models are accelerating local modernization processes. The Belt and Road Initiative is empowering countries in the Global South, enhancing their endogenous development capacity.
China's expanding foreign investments will continue to unleash untapped potential. As Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao announced recently, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will broaden two-way investment cooperation, focusing not only on GDP, but also on Gross National Income (GNI), emphasizing both the "Chinese economy" and the "Chinese people's economy" (emphasizing the economy's focus on serving the needs of the population). As Chinese enterprises' international competitiveness grows, they are contributing to the stability and smooth operation of global production and supply chains. The returns from these overseas assets will directly contribute to GNI growth.
Taken together, China is sending a clear message to the world: A stronger China will not export war or conflict—it will export opportunities. As it continues to pursue its own stable development, China remains committed to growing alongside the world and sharing the benefits of progress.
